Before the election, Peggy Noonan of The Wall Street Journal asserted that “nobody knows anything” about the potential outcome. David Brooks of The New York Times said forecasters lived in “sillyland.” Jennifer Rubin of The Washington Post tweeted that “averaging polls is junk.”
Can anyone seriously argue that now?
I checked in with the triumphant number-crunchers the morning after. Jackman writes by e-mail that the takeaway isn’t that Noonan and company were wrong and that he and the others were right, but rather that examining the data in a systematic, rigorous fashion is valuable: “It’s about the method, the approach, not the person doing it—think of that as another nail in the coffin of consulting the great oracle.”
QUANT, btw, is someone who does quantitative analysis. A poll quant, like Nate Silver or Sam Wang, performs quantitative analysis on election polling.
Moneyball is the sports version.
You HAVE to start using this type of analysis to understand your place ina changing marketplace. Just. Do. It.